Having been in the industry since 1978 as a pilot, and beginning my demo pilot and sales roles in 1982, I have witnessed several aircraft sales cycles. It has been a bumpy road.I have also seen major shifts in the tracking and forecast indicators. It used to be fairly simple. The economy is good; aircraft sales are good. The economy dips, and aircraft sales go right along with it.Then 2008 happened. The economy took a major hit, and the expected aircraft sales took the expected hit as well. But a strange thing happened. The economy got better. Companies made large amounts of money, with many sitting on piles of cash. All great signs that the aircraft market would rebound as it had always done. Instead, for the next 8-10 years, the aircraft market was tepid in its best years. A large bank described it as the lost decade for the aircraft market.The market finally adjusted to what we would call normal by 2019. I will not bore you with the details and math of how 2019 can be considered normal, but it has become the accepted normal.RELATED STORY: Global Jet Capital releases 2025 fourth quarter business aviation market briefThen, in a booming economy, the pandemic hit the world, and everything came to a screeching halt. The halt was short-lived for aircraft. The traveling public with financial means did not want to sit on or be around hundreds of passengers, with or without masks. Many got a taste of something others had always known, that flying private is more than a luxury. It can be a safety issue as well. With an economy that was still on the rebound, the aircraft market took off.Recently, we had another phase where, historically, given the rebounding nature of the economy, the aircraft market should not have supported the sales volume. That has continued from 2021 to today as high inflation, high interest rates, world threats and a sluggish economy would not have predicted steady growth from 2022 to 2025, which ended up being a very strong year for pre-owned jet sales.Now we are entering a new phase of a growing economy, inflation being tamed, solid GDP growth, the stock market doing very well, solid earnings, the potential for interest rates to go lower and the world stage, while still dicey, better than in previous years. By all historical indicators, 2026 should be another great year.The question that makes this less easy to forecast is whether this latest phase of the economy will follow the old historic norms or not.Economists follow consumer sentiment very closely to try to gauge how confident the consumer is and as an indicator of their potential spending. They also track procurement and business optimism, looking for signs of capital investment.While I only have a BA in economics, I have a theory that is based on common sense that I think mirrors our own households. If I am feeling good about the economy and business, I am more inclined to spend, just like the consumer sentiment suggests. If I think it might be a rough year, I go into conserve-cash mode. The reality of whether I am doing above average at the time does not affect my decision to stay in conserve mode. It is my long-term perception that is stronger than reality.I believe this is what caused the lost decade. Businesses were doing well and had large amounts of cash, but the shock of 2008 was fresh, and their perception was: “I need to be ready for another shock.”To answer if the market will continue to be strong, I suggest paying attention to CAPEX spending and the amount of cash sitting on the sidelines. If you see companies going into high-cash reserves, I feel it will be an indicator that the aircraft market is going to slow. Regardless of any survey, these items are proof of what prospective buyers are really thinking.Mike McCracken is President and founder of Hawkeye Aircraft Acquisitions, a boutique aircraft acquisition consultancy established in 2014. With nearly 40 years of business aviation experience, he is a current Airline Transport Pilot with 7,000+ flight hours and three type ratings.
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