New FAA video discusses plan continuation bias and the impact on pilot error

FAASTeam Program Manager Phil Dixon talks about “get-there-itis” and plan continuation bias in the FAA’s recent video from its 57 Seconds to Safer Flying series.

Dixon said pilots tend to be mission-oriented and their egos will take a hit if their goals are not achieved. He continued to discuss a Piper Arrow crash in Olive Branch, Mississippi where the pilot was flying with a passenger to ceilings at only 300 feet AGL and with low visibility. At the time, in 1998, Runway 18 at Olive Brand-Taylor Field (OLV) only had a non-precision approach and after going missed approach on the second attempt, the pilot did not climb and hit trees south of the field, killing both on board, Dixon said.

This was caused by plan continuation bias, according to Dixon. This is where a person continues with a plan, despite poor or worsening circumstances for the success of the plan, commonly known as “get-there-itis.” The decision to continue despite poor conditions due to a minor inconvenience can lead to pilot error.

Before falling for plan continuation bias, Dixon said to talk to a seasoned pilot, postpone your trip, realize the situation and choose the safest option, change your destination or stop and reassess. According to Dixon, sometimes the mission-oriented attitude is not the safest mindset for a pilot.

In the FAA briefing, it said that research by the General Aviation Joint Safety Committee’s Controlled Flight into Terrain work group suggests human bias, like plan continuation bias, could be a significant factor in CFIT crashes. The FAA said that pilots need to know how their own biases could negatively impact decision-making and how to manage what can be controlled and plan for what cannot.

Pilots routinely face pressure and stress while flying. This could result in a pilot ignoring red flags before or during a flight that would normally trigger a change in plans. The FAA said that plan continuation bias, according to psychologists, is an unconscious bias that can appear stronger the closer you get to accomplishing an activity.

In flight, the pilot will have inclinations to stop the flight, often due to changes in weather or low fuel, but the strongest motivation is to finish the flight. The other urges could be ignored until safely finishing the flight is no longer an option. A pilot that is so mission-oriented may overlook flight hazards like elevated terrain and obstructions. That has the potential to cause a CGFIT accident, the FAA said.

The FAA gave an example where in 2015 after the crew of a Boeing 737 approached an airport at ILS minimums. Following a missed approach, the crew could have diverted to a VFR alternate 200 miles away or an IFR alternate 100 miles away. Despite having enough fuel to reach both of the alternatives, the crew continued to attempt to reach the destination airport despite ATC warnings.

After the third missed approach, the only alternate option left was the IFR where conditions had worsened. Three more missed approaches were made at the alternate before a blind landing with only 15 minutes of fuel remaining. The final approach had the aircraft dangerously close to the ground with terrain warnings audible in the cockpit, the FAA said. Fortunately, there were no injuries and no damage sustained by the aircraft.

Key Takeaways from the FAA

Realistic planning

Consider all factors that could compromise success and make alternative plans to safely deal with them. The FAA said having a backup plan will make switching gears easier. Apprise all on board of changes to help manage expectations.

Continue to assess

Make in-flight assessments to ensure the flight is going according to plan. Look at all factors like weather, headwinds and fuel. The FAA said to objectively analyze these factors and accept any variations in the plan that may be needed. Make sure any variations are acknowledged and dealt with accordingly.

Look at small problems

Deal with the small inconveniences before they become big problems. Any diversion to your plan is a problem, but when left it can become a big issue. The FAA said, switching to an alternate is a small problem, especially when planned for, but not having fuel to reach that alternative is a big problem.

Remove economic incentives

The FAA said to remove cost as a factor in your decision. Worrying about a budget, alternate transportation, hotels or maintenance fees should not impact your decision on choosing a safer alternate plan. Economic reasoning should not prevent you from diverting or making a safe decision.

Assess your capabilities

Be mindful of your skillset and capabilities when planning a flight. The FAA suggests working with an instructor or seeking advice from a more seasoned pilot to develop your set of performance minimums. Be honest when it comes to your capabilities and experience level.

Maintain Proficiency

Keep up with regular training to meet performance minimums. The FAA suggests working with an instructor or participating in proficiency or safety programs.